Nazis, UFO’s, And Curve Fitting The Markets

I am NOT a famous historian.  I don’t even play one on TV.  But despite this somewhat large gap in my resume, I feel pretty confident in going out on a limb and saying that UFO’s never made contact with the Nazi’s.

What, you say?  What is this madness you speak of?  Well, I know this for a number of reasons.

First off, I’m not currently wearing lederhosen.  Second, my name is Brian Christopher Lund, not Karl Günther Lundburg.  And finally, Hogan always got the best of Col. Klink….not the other way around.  Because it only goes to reason that if the Nazi’s ever were in contact with UFO’s, they would have had gotten some pretty bad-ass technology, with which to dominate the world, and that would have included all of us right here in the USA.

Besides, everybody knows that all the best extra-planetary visitors are aligned with America; like Superman, The Silver Surfer, Uncle Martin, and The Great Gazoo.  Even space mutts like Alf side with ‘Merica.  Of course you would never know this is the case from all the content to the contrary that comes down the sluice box of popular media.

On television for example you have The Discovery Channel’s Nazi UFO Conspiracy and The History Channel’s Nazi UFO Hunters.  Check out Amazon and you will find a cornucopia of books and DVD’s disputing my claims, with titles such as Nazi UFO Secrets of World War II, Hitler’s Secret Flying Saucers, and UFO’s, Nazi’s Secret Weapon.  And don’t even get me started on the internet; if you want to believe in Der Aliens, well there are plenty of websites that will help support your delusions.

Typical of the type of crap you will see on Al Gore’s invention related to this subject are sites dedicated to one of the most ridiculous theories, that of the Nazi Bell, or “Die Glocke.”  The Nazi Bell is reported to be some type of anti-gravity device, born out of extraterrestrial technology, that The Third Reich was working on in the waning days of the war.  The problem is, its complete bullshit.

The was never any reference to the Nazi Bell in any literature, by any eyewitnesses, or in any documentation for fifty-five years after the end of World War II, and then magically in 2000, it was described by a Polish Journalist, Igor Witkowski, in his book The Truth About The Wonder Weapons.

Here is an excerpt from the Wikipedia page (yes, there is a Wikipedia page about the Nazi Bell), that describes how the idea came into existence, and how it gained traction….

 Witkowski wrote that he first discovered the existence of Die Glocke by reading transcripts from an interrogation of former Nazi SS Officer Jakob Sporrenberg.  According to Witkowski, he was shown the allegedly classified transcripts in August 1997 by an unnamed Polish intelligence contact who said had access to Polish government documents regarding Nazi secret weapons.  Witkowski maintains that he was only allowed to transcribe the documents and was not allowed to make any copies. Although no evidence of the veracity of Witkowski’s statements have been produced, they reached a wider audience when they were retold by British author Nick Cook, who added his own views to Witkowski’s statements in The Hunt for Zero Point.

So to recap….

An unknown writer for some reason gets access to classified documents, that nobody else has seen, and that he is not allowed to make copies of, that refer to claims a long dead war criminal made that supposedly proves the existence of the Nazi Bell.  Then another writer repeats his wild claims as fact in his book, and so on, and so on, with each subsequent book, or TV show, or website referring to the others claims as “evidence.”

Sounds pretty solid to me.

Now let me take a quick moment to guess at what your inner dialogue is saying right about now…..

“What the hell is Brian talking about?  I know he likes to “stretch” a bit in his posts, but Nazis?  UFO’s?  Some friggin’ bell?  I have no idea how he is going to bring this back to the market?”

Well just sit back and watch me!

Fifty years ago if you had some crazy ideas that you wanted to put out there, on any subject, your options were pretty limited.  The powers that be and the limited bandwidth of their format prevented you from using television or radio to spread your message.  Even if you were somehow able to self-publish your theories, and were able to convince your local bookseller to stock a couple copies of your tome on their precious shelf space, that is where the distribution model ended.

With the leaps we have had in technology in the last twenty years, now literally any idea, no matter how insane, can be made available for the world to see.  And this is a very, very dangerous situation for investors who come to the market with their own biases and beliefs because it allows them to curve fit “data” and information.

Curve fitting has some very specific and technical definitions in regards to mathematics and statistical analysis, but for the purposes of this post I mean when someone wishes to see specific evidence pointing to a specific future outcome that in reality does not exist.  It is almost always driven by an emotional input instead of an analytical or objective one and it allows an investor to “prove” to themselves that their opinions are correct; no matter what the evidence is to the contrary.  But it wasn’t always that way.

When I was a young kid my great-uncle used to tell me of the years he spent in Germany as a missionary during the early twenties, when hyper-inflation was at its worst.  It made a real impression on him and convinced him of the importance of owning a “fixed” store of value like gold, especially when the value of currency and stocks could disappear almost overnight. This was further impressed upon him during the Great Depression of 1929.

Yet despite the effect these massive economic events made upon him during his formative years of investing, he did not let this “fix” his ideas on investing.  This was partly because he did not seek out only that which reinforced what he had experienced, but more so, that there was not access to overwhelming amounts information that specifically and hyper-aggressively championed those views. Instead, that forced him to pay attention to the realities of what was happening in his business, in the technology of the day, and in macro trends of the country, which allowed him to invest in stocks which greatly outperformed gold.

Nowadays, if an investor brings pre-conceived ideas with them into the markets, they can choose to dogmatically believe those ideas, and justify their validity by searching out only the book, or video, or website that confirms those ideas–no matter how outrageous they are.  They no longer have to pay attention to facts or to reality, instead they can just bore deeper into the content of their chosen “expert,” taking comfort in the fact that it so closely mirrors what they believe.

In 1999, when the book Dow 36,000 came out, it was the investing equivalent of saying Nazi’s were visited by UFO’s.  Those who had experienced the bull mania of the dotcom days, and never wanted to believe it would end could just reference that book as proof that the party was going to continue on–no matter what the the indexes and their P&L statements were saying–and no matter how detached from reality that idea was.

At the height of housing bubble in 2006, if you wanted to believe that your home’s value would go up forever, providing you with a constantly replenished ATM with which to draw from, all you had to do was cite real estate guru Barbara Corcoran’s statement that “this is one of the best times ever to buy.”

If you thought that market was going to crash, but after it did, you didn’t think the low put in at the start of 2009 was low enough, then you just subscribed to the cult of Roubini and all was good.

Do you think gold is going to $5,000?  Oil to $10.00?  $AAPL to $1,000?  $TSLA to infinity and $NFLX to zero?  Whatever your take on a stock, a commodity, or the economy is, you can find someone who will support the idea you want supported; you can find you own “Nazi Bell.”

That is why it is important, now so more than ever, that you come to that markets with no bias and no set agenda, and that you seek out as much objective information as you can to help you with your investment decisions.  Technical analysis goes a long way towards achieving this because by its nature it strips away emotions and subjectivity.  But even if you only stick to fundamentals, you should try to find information that challenges your ideas instead of that which just confirms them.

If you want to learn more about investing, trading, and the markets, all while helping to kick pediatric cancer’s ass, check out my book, Trading: The Best Of The Best – Top Trading Tips For Our Times.  It includes over 200 market tips from 60 active traders and investors, and all proceeds go to the McKenna Claire Foundation to help support research for a cure.  Just click the banner below or go directly to Amazon by clicking here.

Updated Amazon Banner

Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

5 Responses

  1. Aliens did surely not contact the nazis. But we know that the nazis were developing disk-shaped flying vehicles, and there is strong evidence that they also experimented with unconventional propulsion principles in these. It all begun before 1930, so they had a lot of time to make these operable, but probably not war-wirthy yet. These were naturally taken over by USA and Soviet, and probably the concepts have been developed further by these nations. This means that the UFOs we see today are secret vehicles owned by USA, Russia or perhaps other nations, and used mainly for reconnaissance, and sometimes for capturing of children and young adults to use them as guinea pigs in secret experiments..

  2. Pingback: Best Of The StockTwits Blog Network 8-24-13 | The bclund BlogThe bclund Blog

  3. Pingback: Tuesday links: on their own terms

  4. Pingback: Tuesday links: on their own terms | Abnormal Returns

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>