Best Of The StockTwits Network 4-27-13

Let’s be honest, you could pretty much throw a dart any day of the week at the StockTwits Blog Network, and end up hitting a post that is better than 99% of the other stuff out there that passes as financial blogging.  So to say these are “The Best of….” is a little disingenuous; let’s just say these are some of the posts from the last week that caught my attention and I think will interest you.

How a Collar can help starring Cirrus Logic 1nvestor

Sell in May and Go Away? All Star Charts

How to be Rich – THE PUSH Altucher Confidential

Insider Trading The bclund Blog

Financials Want to be the New Leaders Dragonfly Capital

Marketview: Rough Patch Dynamic Hedge

Sterling Digest, April 23 2013: bears in bulls’ clothing FaithMightFX

Who Really Caused The Flash Crash of 2013…Twitter? AP? Hackers? Howard Lindzon

Where Do We Go From Here? Joe Fahmy

WYNN Q1 2013 Earnings Call Tidbits Kid Dynamite’s Blog

Flags flying at half mast in Gold and Silver Peter L. Brandt

One Point No One Is Making About The Flash Crash Phil Pearlman

How To Kill Economic Development Points and Figures

What Kind of Improvements Are Homeowners Making? (INFOGRAPHIC) The Basis Point

Living in a High Frequency World The Minimalist Trader

I Survived the Flash Crash of ’13 The Reformed Broker

The Hyperinflation Bet Never Made Sense The Armo Trader

Gold’s Rebound Uncovers Junior Buying Opportunity AlphaVN

Are Coke and Pepsi the New Big Tobacco? Sizemore Insights

 

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

How To Place More Effective Stops – Webinar Recap

We had a great webinar yesterday on the topic of “How To Place More Effective Stops” but unfortunately there was not enough room for everyone who wanted to attend.  Below you will find links to download the webinar content.

Download complete webinar video

Download free eBook “Trading: The Best of The Best- Top Trading Tips For Our Times”

Keep a look out for another “flash-webinar” next week.

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

Insider Trading

This post originally appeared on TraderPlanet.com.

Perhaps you have heard the term “inside baseball” before. It indicates information, conversation, or an attitude about a topic that only would be relevant to “insiders.”

Like if a group of air conditioning salesmen were standing in the middle of a party discussing the merits of the Emerson 3560 Turbo Express heat exchange core and how it was revolutionizing the industry. Anyone overhearing the conversation would get the passion and the intensity, but not an understanding of the underlying subject.

IT’S LIKE TRADING

As traders we often get waaaaaayyyy inside baseball in our views of the market. We forget that there is a whole investing public out there that doesn’t know anything about MACD’s, or Fibonacci’s, support and resistance levels, reversal days, doji’s, dark cloud covers, or how to short against the box.

JUST LOOK AT APPLE

I was reminded of this by the action in AAPL the past two days.
When AAPL announced their earnings after the bell rang on Tuesday the stock was up as much as seventeen points in the after-hours session, but by the time it finally closed it was negative two points.

To me that was a very bad sign for AAPL bulls, as a stock that gives up that much of a pop, especially after a “good” earnings report, is ripe to be shorted. When the stock opened down twelve points on Wednesday morning it seems like my suspicions were confirmed. But then something strange happened.

Right from the open AAPL started to rally, showing green bar after green bar, pretty quickly erasing the gap down. I was genuinely puzzled by this as the action from the previous day’s after-hours session seemed like a very clear indicator of what traders thought of the stock. But I had forgotten about something; something “insider baseball-ish.”

THE PUBLIC

It seemed as if the buys of the gap down on AAPL were retail buyers, which in retrospect made perfect sense to me. The vast majority of retail buyers don’t pay attention to after-hours (or pre-market) sessions. For them the only time that matters for the market is the time between 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. That meant that the after-hours action was not a part of their AAPL strategy. It literally was a missing piece of the puzzle that they never knew existed.

When AAPL gapped down all they knew was that the company had a strong earnings call and they were getting a huge buying opportunity with a twelve point discount, so they bid it up.

IMPORTANT REMINDER

There was no short setup for AAPL at the open so I didn’t have any skin in the game, but, it was a very good reminder that no matter how much we think we know about the markets, scenarios, scripts, and story lines of what a stock should do are subjective. It also reminded me that there are other participants in the market besides those of us who live, eat, and breathe by each tick, and that their dollars can be equally as powerful, if not more so, than us “insiders” from time to time.

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

The Fall Of Apple

Hey, everybody likes an InfoGraphic….

The Fall of Apple
Created by MoneyChoice.org

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

Register For The “How To Place More Effective Stops” Webinar

If you are tired of HFT and algos running your stops all the time, this coming Thursday at 9:00am PDT I am going to host a webinar entitled “How To Place More Effective Stops” that will help you negate their effects.

The webinar is free and I’m not going to try to sell you anything, but it is limited to the first one-hundred people who register.  You can do that by clicking the link below.

Register to attend the webinar “How To Place More Effective Stops.”

The webinar should run 20-30 minutes and there will be a Q&A at the end.  I look forward to seeing you there.

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

Your 11 Trade Ideas For The Week Of 4-22-13

Not much change from last week in terms of quality trade setups……it’s very thin.

Let’s first take a look at some macro charts you want to keep your eyes on.

In last week’s “Trade Ideas” I highlighted $UNG as potentially getting ready to break out, and that is exactly what it did.  Remember though that it is better to play the underlying than the companies in this industry.

The rally in the markets coincided with the failure of $SKF to breakout in November of last year.  It has now done a “double-tap” at this resistance line, and failing to break above that will bode well for the overall market going forward.

$FXI has managed to recover and pop back above its October breakout level, but it is still within a down channel.

Okay, on to the individual charts.

My two themes for this year are casinos and brokers, and though the action has been “sloppy,” $LVS has moved steadily higher since putting in a low in July of last year.  I will be looking for a move off the trendline indicated by the ellipse to verify that the trend is still intact.

Something is going on here in $FSLR though there is not a clean setup yet. Watching the area indicated by the square to see if one forms.

Lower highs and a wedging formation below the 200ma make $ELLI look like a short below the lower trendline.

This once hot stock has cooled a bit, but $DDD is forming a mini-flag right below a down trendline setting up a good risk/reward on a breakout.

Don’t know what $CEL does, but it has formed a mini-flag right below a gap resistance level.

$BIG was on the list from last week and is (slowly) breaking out of this flaggish channel-type formation.

$APC is sitting precariously on its trendline with a small consolidation area.  A break below that (and the trendline) would be a short to at least the 200ma.

$AMZN was also on the list last week and failed to break out of the this downward channel, but keep it on your radar as long as it holds the bottom trendline.

Insurance companies are looking very toppy.   $AIG made a double-top, then broke a trendline, railed up and “kissed” the underside of it, and formed a triple top.  A short target would be the 200ma.

Another weak insurance stock, $AFL looks like a short if it can break below this support level.

And of course everybody’s favorite stock to once love and now hate, $AAPL.  Next real support on $AAPL is the ellipse area.  If it moves down there fast you will want to look for a trade setup similar to what I wrote about in “How To Catch Knives.”

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

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Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

In Case You Want To Feel Insignificant

Okay, I admit it….I like space photography.  Something about it is so calm and relaxing and gives your Earthly problems a bit of perspective.

Check out this fantastic new photograph of one of space’s most iconic formations, the Horsehead Nebula, taken by the Hubble Space Telescope.

horsehead-nebula-hubble
Hubble Telescope Snaps Stunning Nebula Photo for 23rd Birthday (Space.com)

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

TBoBbanner

Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

Best Of The StockTwits Network 4-20-13

 

Let’s be honest, you could pretty much throw a dart any day of the week at the StockTwits Blog Network, and end up hitting a post that is better than 99% of the other stuff out there that passes as financial blogging.  So to say these are “The Best of….” is a little disingenuous; let’s just say these are some of the posts from the last week that caught my attention and I think will interest you.

A little Big Black & Blue in International Business Machines 1nvestor

The Abnormal Returns book is a year old (and hopefully still relevant) Abnormal Returns

Nasdaq Composite Breaks 50 Day Moving Average All Star Charts

Why Hard-Core Pornography is Bad for your Health, and other facts about Testosterone Altucher Confidential

Position Sizing Webinar Recap The bclund Blog

CWS Market Review – April 19, 2013 Crossing Wall Street

Supply Side Trading Derek Hernquist

Don’t Give Up on the Nasdaq Yet Dragonfly Capital

Marketview: Untethered Price Action Dynamic Hedge

Euro Strength Is Ridiculous FaithMightFX

Apple…The Prologue… I Blame Tim Cook and…and Elon Musk is The New King Howard Lindzon

Apple, Cirrus Logic and The Wisdom Of The Market Ivanhoff Capital

When Your Precious Metals Blogger Doesn’t Understand How ETFs Work… Kid Dynamite’s World

FTSE 100 building a top – see chart Peter L. Brandt

Reconcilable Differences Phil Pearlman

Corporations Are People Points and Figures

Zillow Digs vs. Houzz For Home Improvement Planning & Budgeting The Basis Point

about that “Soros is shorting gold” rumor The Reformed Broker

How Much of Our Energy Spending is Gas? The Armo Trader

A CRMB-y Situation This is Bigger

Home Building Trend Continues…. ValuePlays

You Are Only As Good As Your Last Trade ZorTrades

Is the Rally Over? Sizemore Insights

Bank of America’s Earnings Have Historically Been Bad News For The Stock Seasonal Odds

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

TBoBbanner

Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

This Stock Could Go Up 1200%

This post originally appeared on TraderPlanet.com.

Everybody is looking to find a stock that they can get a big return on. Well, what if I told you that I know of one that could potentially yield you a “twelve-bagger?”

That’s right–this stock could go up as much as 1200% from its current price.
This company seems to have all the right stuff, earning twice as much profit per dollar as the U.S. average for other companies in its field. Its product is considered the highest quality and is more desirable than its competitors.

THE BLOOMBERG STORY

This company is massively undervalued, and it not just me that thinks this. In fact I am basing this on the comments of industry experts quoted in Bloomberg no less.

Timothy Parker, who oversees $8.5 billion in stock at T. Rowe Price Group says in the article that the company’s product is “the bees knees” and Bloomberg itself says that based on similar median earning on other buyout deals in the same space, this company’s stock could fetch as much as $192.00 a share.

Here’s more from the Bloomberg article:

“It’s really an obvious takeout candidate, especially after the CEO resigned,” said Eric Green, a Philadelphia-based fund manager at Penn Capital Management, which oversees $6.5 billion….

While J. Christopher Haberlin, an analyst at Davenport, estimates the company may fetch between $185 and $215 a share, David Beard, an analyst at Iberia Capital Partners LLC, pegs a takeover at about $160 a share.

(it) was also one of more than 40 companies that Bloomberg identified in March that met the acquisition criteria Warren Buffett listed in his annual letter to shareholders. Buffett typically prefers “simple” businesses with pretax profit exceeding $75 million, “consistent” earning power, and “good” returns on equity while employing little or no debt, according to his report to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) shareholders.

“Now is a good time to sell the company because of the near-record prices for met coal, strong global demand and constricted global supply,” said Davenport’s Haberlin, who’s based in Richmond, Virginia. “The assets have more value now than ever.”

The company should sell because it “now lacks the strong leadership needed,” which is “weighing on the share price,” Audley Capital, which owns 900,000 shares, or about 1.5 percent of the company, said in a July 17 letter to the board.

Walter Energy could fetch $240 a share in a takeover, based on the 2012 earnings multiple that Peabody Energy Corp. ($BTU) and ArcelorMittal are offering for Macarthur Coal Ltd. ($MCC), the letter said. That would be double Walter Energy’s closing price of $119.64 yesterday.

Wow…..So many experts with so much solid fundamental information on Walter Engergy ($WLT). I mean Bloomberg wouldn’t print this if these guys didn’t know what they were talking about, right?

CHARTS DON’T LIE

Here is a current chart of $WLT.

LundApril18.png

This chart starts on July 1, 2011, the day the Bloomberg article from which the above info was taken was published, when $WLT was trading at $121.00 per share. Today it is $19.00 per share.

DO YOUR OWN WORK

I have pounded to the table for years now on how you cannot rely on “experts” and you cannot use fundamental data or “stories” to trade and invest in the markets. Fundamentals are not objective and “experts” usually have an agenda. This example in $WLT, and there are hundreds of others like it, shows you why, in order to be a successful in the markets, you need to do your own work, focus on the technicals, and just tune all this other junk out.

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

TBoBbanner

Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.

Position Sizing Webinar Recap

We had a great seminar yesterday on the topic of “How To Correctly Size Your Positions For Daytrading” but unfortunately there was not enough room for everyone who wanted to attend.  Below you will find links to download the webinar content.

Download complete webinar video

Download webinar presentation

Download positon sizing spreadsheet

Download free eBook “Trading: The Best of The Best- Top Trading Tips For Our Times”

Keep a look out for another “flash-webinar” next week.

Make sure to check out my free eBook Trading:The Best Of The Best-Top Trading Tips For Our Times  (just click the banner below).

TBoBbanner

Why not subscribe to bclund.com for free  Via E-mail or Via RSS and follow me on StockTwits and Twitter?

What bclund is, is the intersection of markets, trading, and life (with some punk rock, pop culture, and off-beat humor mixed in). Check out “The Best Of bclund” to get started.

Click here to “Like” the bclund Facebook page.

Brilliant stuff like this rains down like..well, rain, on my stream during the week. If you want to get wet, follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also pick up my book Trading – The Best of the Best: Top Trading Tips For Our Times by clicking here.