(This post was originally written by me in December of 2008 after I was hit by a semi-truck and was on a massive morphine drip in a vegetative state).
A lot of talking heads are on TV saying “whew”, because we finally got out of 2008. They act as if because the calendar has changed, that the market has, and that we can’t go down anymore. Will we? Who knows. Can we? You bet we can. And here is an ominous sign that we might.
Apple computers is a good proxy for the overall market. If we look at its daily chart we see some troubling signs.
Apple seems to be forming a large descending triangle, a pattern that is usually resolved with a downside breakout.
On a closer look, you can see that Apple has had 6 inside bars, with volume drying up. One inside bar can often be a precursor to a range expansion move. Looking back on the last five years of Apple, there have never been six inside bars. The closest was at the end of August of this year, just before Apple began its fall from about $170.00 to $85.00. These inside bars are formed basically at the very bottom of its recent range (plus or minus $85.00).
If you look at a weekly chart, you see the descending triangle, along with a NR inside bar (I realize that we technically have one day left in this week). If Apple breaks below $85.00, on good volume, there is only a minor speed bump in the way at between $80.00-$82.00 that keeps it from a measured move down to $50.00, which also happens to be a support level.
Apple at $50.00? I know it sounds crazy, but $120.00 was once thought of as the absolute floor. I am not say it will go there, but it can. And one thing is pretty certain, it is going to break here one way or the other pretty soon.
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