Today I’ve asked my friend and veteran trader Henry Brookins of Stocklooker.com to do some macro analysis in this guest post.
We are near another short-term market top, but I am not expecting a “collapse” when the markets rest
It does not matter who is elected President, the stock market and economy will be stuck in “sideways mode” for another 7 years. However, the markets should “bottom” during the next 2-3 years.
The bankers will likely allow the markets to fall a bit, then I expect choppiness through summer, but then we will likely see a nice rally to boost them again in time for the November elections.
War is coming – it has occurred after almost every single depression – 1930’s (WW-II), 1970’s (Vietnam), 2000’s. I am fully expecting a war on someone – and right now it looks like we will make Iran the next target – it’s good for business…..at least the Bankers think so.
Expecting another 20-30% down depending on the area, and a bottom in the next 2-3 years. Save some cash.
Europe – it won’t be allowed to go into complete chaos. The U.S. (a.k.a American taxpayer) will print money and help them stay just above the abyss. However, I expect a 10 nation group – which means many will fall out.
Where to invest the next 3 years:
Agriculture – arable land, agricultural chemicals, commodities, railroads, and save money for real estate and watch for deals; blue chip companies that have tons of cash and little debt and have been around a while (to include Oil companies) – and just average down as the market slides again.
I am also speculating in small stocks with large daily trading volumes, because I believe these will be “less manipulated” by the computers and Bankers. Right now I am looking at semiconductors and biotechnology, watching solar companies and coal stocks for a bottom.
Good news: If we are going to be around in 20 years+ – our house prices should recover, and stocks will be early in a 40-year bull market run. Buy and hold will return by 2020ish.
(Note: If you are new to my blog, I post about all sorts of things. Sometimes it involves something extremely personal, like creating a 30K baby or my Monster Trades. Other times it deals with hot ex-porn stars who trade stocks. And sometimes it’s about how to avoid “suicide”. But a good place to start is The Best of bclund. If you like what you read, please tell a friend. If you don’t, please tell two friends.)